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SEC Over/Under Win Bets

In the SEC it just means more and so do my over/under win bets. Fanduel has released their SEC totals for the 2019 season

Florida - 9

My bet - Over

Dan Mullen is one of the top 10 coaches in college football and he has the potential to vault into the top 5 if he can get the Gators into the College Football Playoff. Mullen turned Mississippi State into a perennial top 25 program, which most people considered impossible. 

Now Mullen has the keys to one of the top programs in America in Gainesville. If Mullen can just get adequate quarterback play from Felipe Franks the Gators will win 10 and maybe even 11 games in 2019.

Texas A&M - 7.5

My bet - Over

One of the biggest mistakes amateur gamblers can make is focusing on the schedule instead of the team. That is a sure fire way to lose your money. Don't be that guy or gal. The Aggies are on a great trajectory under Jimbo Fisher. 

Kellen Mond is poised to have a monster year after posting big numbers last year. Jimbo has elevated the Aggies recruiting and he will bear some of that fruit this season. The Aggies will pull off at least one upset of the following four games: at Clemson, Alabama, at Georgia, and at LSU. In fact, I will take it a step further and say they win 2. Aggies win double-digit games and the A&M sleeping giant is awake.

Alabama - 11

My bet - Push

The Crimson Tide has become boring and stale, don't get me wrong they're great and are led by the best coach in the history of college football in Nick Saban, but Bama will once again be favored by double digits in every regular season game, will stub their toe somewhere along the way and find a way to get into the CFP. Wash, rinse, repeat.

The best thing for college football would be for Bama to lose multiple games, but that won't happen.

Auburn - 8

My bet - Under

Jarrett Stidham was a horrible fit in the Gus Mulzahn offense. He was a really good passer that never fit in that system. Gus needs a dual-threat quarterback to be effective and he will have that with either Joey Gatewood or Bo Nix. However, those quarterbacks are young and by the time they find their groove it will be too little too late, the Tigers will be 7-5 and Gus Mulzahn will be fired.

Georgia - 11

My bet - Over

The Dawgs will run the table in the regular season behind the elite leadership of quarterback Jake Fromm, the best offensive line in the country, and the most electrifying running back in the country in De'Andre Swift. I think Swift could be the first running back to win the Heisman since Derrick Henry. 

The Dawgs will play elite defense and will play all of their toughest games Between the Hedges. I see the Alabama game in Atlanta for the SEC championship as the only opportunity for the Dawgs to lose. Will UGA get the monkey off their back and beat Bama?

LSU - 9

My bet - Under

Think about this. Les Miles was run out of town for averaging 10 wins per year. Coach O wins 9 in the regular season and everyone is giving him attaboys and back slaps. Funny how that works isn't it? 

Here's the bottom line, LSU has better talent than 10 out of 12 teams on their regular season schedule year in and year out. So Coach O and the Tigers underachieved last year, but people's expectations for Coach O are low. 

Joe Burrow helped stabilize things at quarterback, but he still finished 11th in completion percentage and 7th in passer rating in the SEC, both of which are entirely average. Again, it's all about perspective when it comes to LSU. Coach O is in the bottom 20% of coaches at the Power 5 level and even with elite talent, deficiencies at quarterback and head coach will cost the Tigers. 

Mississippi State - 8

My bet - Under

Joe Moorhead did an amazing job with the Penn State offense in 2016. I think he is one of the better offensive minds in college football. Where the jury is still out is on him as a head coach. He has also taken over a historically bad program in Starkville, Mississippi. Can Moorhead sustain the success that Dan Mullen enjoyed with the Bulldogs? I think it's unlikely. 

Moorhead will have a better fit for his offense in Tommy Stevens, one that he is familiar with after he transferred from Penn State. The quarterback has to be an accurate passer to operate the Moorhead offense effectively and the Bulldogs didn't have that last year with Nick Fitzgerald.

Ultimately the losses on defense will be too much to overcome and the Bulldogs will only win 6 or 7 games. I still think that is a good season. Vegas has overrated what the Mississippi State program is.

Kentucky - 6.5

My bet - Under

The Cats enjoyed their best season maybe ever by winning 10 games. That is not sustainable in Lexington. Especially now that Georgia and Florida have their acts together in the East, and Tennessee is heading that way. 

Kentucky loses a ton of talent on defense and all-time leading rusher Benny Snell. Coach Mark Stoops will have done a heck of a job if he just gets the Wildcats to 6 wins and bowl eligibility.

South Carolina - 6

My bet - Under

The Gamecocks are an average program with an average head coach in Will Muschamp, sorry not sorry if that hurts your feelings. The Cocks will be very fortunate to get to bowl eligibility this year. I don't see that happening in an SEC East that will feature a lot of just meh teams. Not everyone will be bowl eligible in this division and the Gamecocks will be the team that falls short and wins 4 or 5.

Vanderbilt - 5

My bet - Over

Derek Mason is one of the most underrated coaches in college football. Vandy is one of the toughest places in the country to win. The academic restrictions are tough to overcome for a head coach and playing in the SEC just makes matters worse.  

The Dores will be good on defense as always since that is Mason's specialty and they return marquee offensive skill position talent lead by Ke'Swawn Vaughn who may be the best running back in the country. The Dores find a way to win 6 and get back to a bowl.

Tennessee - 6

My bet - Over

This is a bet on the Vols brand name and Jeremy Pruitt as a head coach. I am bullish on both. Pruitt is making the Vols tough, hard-nosed, and physical on both sides of the ball and that always works wonders for programs that have been struggling.

If the Vols get adequate quarterback play from Jarrett Guarantano they could win as many as 8 games in 2019.

Ole Miss - 5

My bet  - Under

The Rebels are poorly led by Matt Luke, who was given the head job after the Hugh Freeze fiasco because they had literally no other options. Now they are stuck with him before they will inevitably have to fire Luke. AD Ross Bjork left for A&M so I'm sure the new AD will want to hire their own coach. 

Ole Miss doesn't play defense and will get torched in the loaded SEC West. Plus, someone needs to finish in last place because Arkansas is on the rise, speaking of which...

Arkansas - 5

My bet - Over

Chad Morris is a good head coach and he will elevate the Hogs. In fact, I think Arkansas could be the most improved team in the country in the win total category. This team will be explosive offensively and with a fortuitous schedule could win as many as 8 games.

Calling the Hogs!

Missouri - 7.5

My bet - Under

Kelly Bryant made the worst transfer decision I can remember, choosing to transfer from National Champion Clemson to Columbia, Missouri. Now he has the inept leadership of Head Coach Barry Odom and Offensive Coordinator Derek Dooley. 

The Tigers will get off to a hot start before falling apart down the stretch, finishing 5-7. Not that it matters because the Tigers aren't bowl eligible this year anyway due to NCAA violations.