Sexy 7 Picks Week 3

Last week's record 3-4, overall record 6-7 (.461).

Tough week. Wisconsin covered with ease, as did Ole Miss, and Tulane vs. Auburn didn't come close to the over as it was a very low scoring game. Any losing week is a disappointment and I want to provide my subscribers with the best picks. I know the picks will only get better as the season progresses and we can dig into trends and data. 

I am typically someone that finds value in the dogs, but this week I find myself going the other way and betting mostly favorites.

Colorado +3.5 vs. Air Force

This line looks so fishy to me. Is Vegas trying to steal my money here? I feel like this line doesn't make any sense, which makes me think they are trying to bait me into betting the Buffs.

I'm doing it anyway. The Buffs aren't going to have a let down after beating rival Nebraska. They will ride the wave of momentum and beat the Falcons by at least a touchdown.

Don't worry about the Buffs defending the triple option. Mel Tucker is a defensive side of the ball coach having been the defensive coordinator for Kirby Smart and the defensive backs coach for Nick Saban. Coach Tucker will have a plan on D and the Buffs will score enough to cover the spread with ease. 

Kansas State +8.5 vs. Mississippi State

First-year Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman comes over to Manhattan after leading North Dakota State to four FCS National Championships in five seasons. And he's off to a hot start at Kansas State as the Wildcats are 2-0 having outscored their opponents 101-14. 

Mississippi State starting quarterback Tommy Stevens is questionable for the game with an injury. The fact that K-State is getting over a touchdown is way too seductive to pass up. 

If just feels like Mississippi State is still trying to figure things out which leads me to believe that a red hot Kansas State is going to give them trouble. 

Ohio State +15.5 vs. Indiana

The Hoosiers have been a thorn in the side of the Buckeyes recently. Indiana has nearly knocked off Ohio State on several occasions. Not this year though. 

Ryan Day is well aware of the recent history in this series and wants to put his own stamp on this program. Crushing the Hoosiers is on his agenda. 

Justin Fields continues his Heisman Trophy audition by putting up monster numbers as the Buckeyes pull their starters midway through the 3rd quarter.

Nebraska +14 vs. Northern Illinois

A lot of people will be throwing Nebraska in the trash after their collapse at Colorado. I think that game will serve as motivation. Look for a pissed off Cornhuskers team to take out their frustrations against the Huskies at home and win by more than 4 touchdowns.

Nebraska will play loose and absolutely unleash all their electrifying play-makers on an unsuspecting Northern Illinois team that will simply have no answer for the Huskers athleticism. 

Oklahoma +23.5 vs. UCLA

Honestly, the only way the Sooners don't cover is if they call off the dogs in the third quarter and UCLA scores multiple garbage-time touchdowns in the second half because this game will be like 42-7 at halftime. 

UCLA is a major disappointment under Chip Kelly. The whole key to turning around UCLA will be Chip Kelly having a quarterback that can run his offense. He doesn' t have that with Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I mean DTR couldn't even beat out Tate Martell for the starting job in high school at Bishop Gorman. 

Until Chip finds his quaterback I will likely be betting against UCLA most of the season. 

USC -5 vs BYU

BYU needed a miraculous late-game comeback to beat Tennessee for heaven's sake. How are they going to stay within a touchdown of USC and all of their superior talent?

They won't.

USC true freshman Kedon Slovis has been a revelation at quarterback filling in for the injured J.T. Daniels.
USC scores a lot, while BYU scores a little. 

Georgia Southern +15.5 vs. Minnesota

The Gophers have struggled to put away inferior competition through the first two weeks of the season. 

That trend will continue against Georgia Southern.

Unless Kirk Ciarrocca opens up the playbook on offense there is no way the Gophers are beating anyone by more than three touchdowns. I mean Ciarrocca is doing his best Schottenheimer impression with his play calling. It's almost like he's purposely trying to negate all the explosive playmakers he has to work with. 

I've seen more innovative play-calling in back yard flag football games. 

The Gophers fart out another unimpressive win 27-13.