Record last week: 5-2, Overall: 11-9 (.55 winning %)
Nice bounce back after an average first two weeks. Now we're going to go 6-0 if we continue our trend line.
This is the first big boy weekend of college football with lots of sexy matchups.
West Virginia -4.5 vs Kansas
Everyone is jumping on the Jayhawks bandwagon after KU pummelled Boston College on the road, winning their first P5 road game in 11 years.
I think this is just giving smart betters like myself an opportunity to get a sharper line on West Virginia. Kansas still isn't very good and if the Jayhawks had lost the previous week this line would have likely been West Virginia -10 to 11.5 so you are getting close to an extra touchdown of line value.
This is my most confident play of the week.
Northwestern +7 vs Michigan State and Under 38.
These teams couldn't score if they were Wilt Chamberlain attending a 1969 sex and drugs party. I think the ceiling for both teams is 17 points, which means the under hits by 4 points at a minimum.
Michigan State is an overrated team. They have poor quarterback play and equally poor offensive play-calling. Northwestern, meanwhile is one of the stingiest defenses in the country. The Cats have issues on the offensive side of the ball themselves, as Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson has been a tremendous disappointment to date, but this one will go right down to the final ticks.
Sparty wins barely 16-13.
Cal +2 vs. Ole Miss
This line looked peculiar to me when it was a pick em' and then it got bet up to where Cal is getting points. A Cal team that went on the road to Seattle and beat a UDub team that is significantly better than Ole Miss.
That has me thinking Vegas has an ulterior motive. The books are begging me to take the Bears plus the points so they can take my money, right? It has to be. So why am I being a sucker and betting this game anyway? Because I think Cal is the better-coached football team that's why.
The Ole Miss offense is a mess and the Golden Bears have one of the best defenses in the country so I just don't see how Hotty Toddy comes up with points in this one.
The only thing that is giving me pause is the 9 am local start time for the Bears. After a sleepy first half, the Bears roll 24-13.
Nebraska -12.5 vs Illinois
This game actually has been bet up to Nebraska -13.5 so we got an extra point of value and you know what? We won't need it. Nebraska is still ticked after losing in OT to Colorado and they took out their anger and frustration last week on Northern Illinois and now Illinois will be the recipient.
Illinois is so hard up for fan interest that they are reportedly giving away free tickets to students. Apathy may be at an all-time high for Illinois, which is really saying something because I didn't think it could get any worse.
Nebraska fans will likely take up at least a third of Memorial Stadium in Champaign. The Huskers roll 44-17.
Wisconsin straight up on the money line -170 vs Michigan
This is called hater insurance. I hate Wisconsin so betting them straight up will make me happy regardless of the outcome of the game. If the Badgers win, I win money. If they lose, I paid to see them lose. It gives me great power!
In all seriousness, I think this is a total coin flip game. It will be relatively low scoring and the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.
Wisconsin has played a soft schedule and looked perfect, while Michigan has played a tricky schedule and looked flawed.
I actually think that Michigan and Minnesota are better than people think despite the fact that they haven't blown anyone out early. Both teams have played teams that are better than you think.
This game will determine whether Wisconsin is for real or phony and whether Michigan is better than the early results would lead you to believe or if they once again will disappoint in the grand picture.